Euro drops on Greek uncertainties

Greece has been reporting several different reports the past weeks. Domestic negotiations are sometimes going well, and sometimes coming to a complete stop. Yesterday, talks were once again slowed, as the Greek government couldn’t come to terms with creditors. This implies that the country in fact is far from resolving their crisis, increasing the level of risk for holding euros. As a result, demand for the euro decreased, making it fall in the forex market.

Right now, most investors are selling of euros. Analysts predict that this trend will continue until the Greeks resolve their fiscal issues. Until then, outlook for the euro is till very uncertain. Before the currency fell on Greek news, the euro was heading to a record high against the Japanese yen.

The euro depreciated 60 basis points against the Japanese yen and 50 basis points, 0.5 percent, against the U.S. dollar.

EU summit increases demand for the euro

The euro managed to bounce back from losses made yesterday in the forex market as the results of the summit in Brussels were announced. Just as these talks were on their way, Greece reported that domestic negotiations are improving and that parties might finally come to an agreement. Both these news increased demand for risky assets, making the euro appreciate and the U.S. dollar depreciate.

European leaders agreed to sign the new fiscal policies where a new form of control will be implemented, making sure that countries deficits don’t reach a level over 3 percent of total Gross Domestic Product. Furthermore, the European meeting will lead to funds being added to the European rescue fund faster than they currently are.

Analysts are predicting that the euro is headed for a new rally, which probably will last all week. Even though there were no major new announcements made by European leaders, Europe showed that they are detriment to fight the debt crisis and once again reach economic growth.

Thailand experiences increased capital flows

Thailand, much like their neighbouring countries, has been strengthening for a four-day period. The demand for the country’s currency, the baht, has been increasing, as expectations are that the country will be performing well in the coming months.

Investors increased their holdings of bath-held assets by nearly 100 million U.S. dollars. The money was mostly invested in the country’s stock market. 2011 was a slow year for Thailand, as the economy grew by just over 1 percent. The country is largely dependent on Tourism from European countries, which decreased last year, mainly due to the European debt crisis. However, analysts are predicting that the trend will change and that Thailand will reach an growth of around 7 percent this year, which was enforced by government officials expecting the same number.

The bath gained 0.2 percent against the U.S. dollar in today’s trading session in the forex market.

France looses top credit rating; euro falls in the forex market

The euro continued to depreciate today, which makes it a one and half month of consecutive weekly losses in the forex market. The main factor behind the fall today was the somewhat unexpected news from Standard & Poor’s, announcing that several European countries now have been downgraded.

One of Europe’s largest economies, France, was one country loosing its rating. The French had hoped to keep their AAA+ rating, but were downgraded to AA+. Even though Germany managed to keep their current top rating, the euro slumped up to 150 basis points against the U.S. dollar.

Furthermore, announcements were made that the Greek government had to pause talks with domestic banks, which means that the situation in the country still is far from being solved as possible measures are being procrastinated. This report further spurred depreciation for the European currency.

U.K. figures looks better than expected

U.K. experienced an increased level of demand mainly from Germany and China, which lead to manufacturing numbers in the country looking stronger than most analysts had estimated. Both China and Germany reported increased manufacturing numbers and more buy power, which had a positive effect on the British economy.

Even though manufacturing numbers in the U.K. have contracted quite a bit, the main news today was that the numbers contracted several percentages less than most analysts expected. The country has had a hard time, as Europe is its largest business partner and stands for a substantial part of the U.K.’s exports. Demand in the region has decreased as a natural consequence of the current debt crisis.

The good news coming out of the U.K. led to a short-term increased demand in British pound held assets. However, the problem of a contracting manufacturing sector still remains and is expected to slow down the rest of the economy in the coming year.

Euro falls today after initial gain

The euro started to fall today against nearly all major currencies in the world, as the European debt crisis still is a large issue for the region. Recently, the President of the European Central Bank announced that they have started to loan vast amounts of money to European banks at a 1 percent interest level. Although traders all over the world welcomed the action, and several global stock indices grew over one percent, investors are still sceptical to the stability of the region.

The previous announcement about the new European lending-program made the euro appreciate yesterday. However, a large portion of this gain was completely erased today as reality hit and the debt crisis once again become a reality. The euro depreciated 0.3 percent against the U.S. dollar and 0.1 percent against the Japanese currency. The total loss for the euro this year is now around 1.3 percent. This is based on an index of the most heavily traded currencies in the world.

Brazil is aiming for a weak currency to maintain growth

The Brazilian government announced that they might take precautionary actions to keep the country’s currency from rising too much, as it might be hurtful for export-oriented companies and the country’s economic growth.

The country’s Finance Minister said that Brazil’s ultimate aim is to keep the U.S. dollar strong and the Brazilian real weak as it stimulates domestic industries. However, they are not interested in restraining the currency by implementing floor or ceiling levels. Less than six months ago, the Brazilian real reached record levels against the U.S. dollar, hitting just above the 1.50 mark.

Brazil is expecting more growth in the future and is mainly using monetary policies to control the value of their currency. They have recently lowered interest rates to stimulate the economy and are hopeful of both future economic growth and the value of the Brazilian currency in the forex market.

Colombian Central Bank keeps cutting interest rates

The Colombian government has been battling inflation for quite some time now, which has made them raise interest rates more than any other economy in the region. The country’s Central Bank has implemented 7 consecutive increases of benchmark interest rates.

The struggle continues as economists are predicting yet another increase in the coming policy meeting to be held before the holidays. The last raise was 0.25 percent, and analysts are predicting a similar rise this time, making the benchmark rate 5 percent total.  There are some voices stating that focus should be on alleviating the current debt crisis and global economic slow-down instead of inflation, which means lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, the Colombian government believes that making the cost of borrowed capital higher is favoured over the alternative of lowering it.

Colombia’s target inflation is 4 percent, which was surpassed around two months ago.

Australian dollar falls from its two-week peek

New announcements from the Australian government made the currency fall from its two-week peak. Reports showed that consumption and spending slowed and that building approvals witnessed a decline. The Australian dollar fell against all heavily traded currencies in the forex market. The main reason is the second month downfall of the building permits, which play a major role in the Australian economy. The amount of permits approving house building or renovation declined over 10 percent in October.

Economists are calling for actions by the Australian government, mainly a lowering of interest rates to stimulate the economy. The Australian dollar fell 0.6 percent against the US dollar and half a percentage against the Japanese yen.

Japanese job cuts and global growth

It seems as if the multinational Japanese consumer electronics company Panasonic is heading for it’s biggest loss in a decade. This has resulted in plans by the board to let go around 17 000 people. Meanwhile, TDK is looking to fire 11 000 people, which is around 12 percent of the entire staff. Although forex traders may have reaped the fruits of a yen trading strong, a dip in exports has been inevitable.

Japan had come back strongly after the devastating earthquakes in March this year, but it seem as if the country might be heading back to the same previous levels. The Japanese government plans to maintain growth through construction jobs in 2012. Expectations from economists are that Japanese growth will ease this quarter and slow down further in 2012.

Globally, UBS is expecting lower figures for growth. Estimates for global growth have fallen by 0.4%, US growth by 0.3% and Chinese growth by 0.3%. OECD stated that the main reason behind a decreased global growth is the European debt crisis and the risks it carries.